I like making my own NFL picks. Well not this year but generally I like making choices. Lots of people are always searching for NFL Picks why? because it's good to have a sense of knowledge and it always helps with making money. Like taking the money line or spread. You can find nfl picks here for free. They also have paid services for serious gamblers. Check it out.
In an epic match up that occurs yearly, the New England Patriots are battling the Indianapolis Colts as undefeated teams.
Most would argue this is the real superbowl as NFC is thought of as inferior.
It should be a great match up but who wins?
One of my 3 favorite NFL teams is the Colts so I am definitely rooting for them. But I have a belief that the Patriot's team is suited for the regular season match up but not the playoffs. The Colts have methodically beaten teams with games going down to the wire, all hard fought while the Patriots are out right beating up teams. Does anybody remember when this was reversed?
If they face in the playoffs I'd pick the Colts but due to this being the regular season and it's not that big of a deal since it's not for all the chips, I see the Pats taking it.
The NFL Draft is looking like a success year after year with their high ratings. Especially with huge news stories from Eli Manning being traded, the drops of Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn or the Houston Texans passing on Reggie Bush.
I being a sports nerd am usually attracted to things such as the draft. The problem was that it was kind of long and at times borings waiting all the time between picks.
Most of the time as well, the media insiders knew exactly what would happen and the teams made up their mind. The only problem was that 80% of the time, the teams opted to wait for the full 15 minutes.
Most sports organizations would probably say "if it isn't broke don't fix it" but the move from 15 to 10 minutes between selections basically saves us viewers 2 hours and a half and thus leaving us more satisfied.
Chalk one up for the NFL.
This should cause some excitement in some Canadians who make a large fan base of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has entertained the idea of playing a pre-season game and 1 regular season game.
Who doesn't like the idea? Well maybe New York-area fans and the CFL.
First off, I first expect a few years where we have the Bills play some pre-season games. Football is a hot commodity in Canada and with the establishment of the international bowl we might earn the right to get an NFL team.
Other then taking baby steps, I definitely think there needs to be a new stadium. Vaughan looks like a top place to have a stadium IF we were ever to get a stadium due to it's closeness to the airport and Toronto's developing metropolitan area.
That said the reality of getting the Bills to play here is slim. Unless you've got patience to wait until... 2015?
I've some mediocre weeks with just barely above a 500 record going 7-6 last week and now having a 41-27 record on the season against the spread.
Here are the picks:
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans (+6.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars -Texans have been failing me
Cleveland Browns (-4.5) over the Miami Dolphins
Chicago Bears (-5) over Minnesota Vikings
NY Jets (+3.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles
St. Louis (+9.5) over Baltimore -Beat San Fran 9-7....
Tennessee Titans (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers (-3) over the Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over the Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys (-6) over the New England Patriots -HUGE risk I'm taking, I feel like I'm going to get burned for picking against them
Oakland Raiders (+10) over the San Diego Chargers -Oakland is pretty underrated but I like the Chargers just not with the spread
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) over the New Orleans Saints
NY Giants (-3.5) over the Atlanta Falcons -Atlanta has stung me recently but their recent success has lowered the spread (burned mainly by the spread)
Another mediocre week going 7-6 bring my season record to 41-27 against the spread. I am not surprised as I probably should spend a bit more time analyzing. I forgot to include the Titans/Falcons games.
The spread hurt me in 2 games where I selected the winner but the teams didn't get the necessary points.
The games that I feel I was flat out wrong about:
Dallas/Buffalo - Very surprising to see their defense do so well. Very depressing to see them lose though. Tony Romo redeemed himself as he most importantly got the win despite the struggles.
Chicago/Green Bay - I guess it's time I stopped overrating the Packers.
Tampa Bay/Indianapolis - This one hurts. I was picking Tampa Bay to lose but win based on the spread. I guess it was a bad risk though those picks have worked for me in the past.
Anyway, another mediocre week hopefully I can get another runaway week or something.
I realized I made a mistake on my own record and I'm now 34-21 on the season against the spread after a disappointing 8-6 week.
I don't have much time this weekend but thankfully it doesn't take me long at all to make picks (30 seconds per game).
Houston Texans (-5) over Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) over Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots (-16.5) over Cleveland Browns *Pats haven't failed me yet
Kansas City (+2.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Carolina Panthers (+3) over New Orleans Saints -Very unsure about this...would rather take the points
Washington Redskins (-3.5) over Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over St. Louis Rams -Ferotte and a convincing win over Pitt and still a low spread? Thanks (this is me jinxing myself)
NY Giants (-3.5) over the NY Jets -who's really the home team?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) over the Indianapolis Colts -Bucs are for real BUT this choice is based on Indy not covering the spread. Bucs are better then Denver.
San Diego Chargers (PICK) over the Denver Broncos - Chargers really need this and I can't pick against them without a spread.
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) over the Baltimore Ravens. -Dilfer's revenge? Either way I didn't belive in Baltimore's defense from the start
Green Bay Packers (-3) over the Chicago Bears -As long as they have Griese and not Orton, the Bears don't stand a chance
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) over the Buffalo Bills -Spread is high and I like the Bills but Dallas is an elite team.
I went 8-6 last week which is "okay" but not too happy about it. The 2 games I didn't choose to gamble on were losses and my speculation was right though I didn't make the right picks here. My current record is 34-21 which most gambling sites would argue is decent. It doesn't give me much room for error though if I have some bad weeks.
Lessons learned: take home teams into account
The games I lost include:
Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons. I thought this game was a "gimme" with the spread and Atlanta surprised while the Texans disappointed. You could argue the Texans had the injuries but so far for the season they have been impressive.
Baltmore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. I actually wanted to choose the Browns but felt that I was being biased in thinking that the Ravens suck and overrated so I chose the safe pick with Baltimore and I should've gone with my gut.
Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. I did a post saying Kyle Orton should be in there.
Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals. I disregarded everything I read as I really liked both teams and I choose the Steelers since they were very dominating.
San Diego Chargers and KC Chiefs. Disappointed in San Diego one of my 3 favorite teams (Colts, Bills and Chargers). I was concerned at the big spread as well and I wouldn't have put my money on this.
The Bears replaced Rex Grossman with Brian Griese for this week's games.
While I condone the replacing of Rex Grossman, the Bears made a mistake replacing Grossman for the WRONG guy. The right guy is Kyle Orton. Orton is a 3rd year player who sat out all of last season watching on the sidelines. However, rewinding back to his rookie season in 2005 he went 10-5 leading the Bears to a playoff spot and was pulled when Grossman came back.
Orton's statistics sucked in his rookie year but he was just learning and it's not like other QBs have fared that much better. Alex Smith's stats weren't that great for his rookie season either. It's now 2007 and Orton is quite deserving of another shot. He did nothing to suggest otherwise.
Since Griese lost this is much easier to say this but why isn't Orton in already?
Screw that Griese is the veteran, Orton will at least limit his mistakes and win games!
This week I am playing $2 on 12 games (starred) where I win money either winning 10 to 12 of the games. Highly unlikely but for fun but if I win all 12 that would be $2000.
Like every week, when I pick dogs it's in RED and when I pick favorites it's in blue.
Oakland Raiders*(+4) against Miami Dolphins -Culpepper's revenge and I believe the Browns are better then Miami.
Houston Texans* (-3) over the Atlanta Falcons -Houston is good
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) over Cleveland Browns. -I actually hate Baltimore but trying to reverse my biasedness.
Chicago Bears*(-3) over Detroit Lions. 3 points is a no brainer but I had to go with 4.5. The Bears have the wrong guy at QB it should be Orton (dedicating a post)!
Green Bay Packers* (-2) over the Minnesota Vikings. -Did people miss last week's game, easy spread!
Dallas Cowboys* (-13) over the St. Louis Rams - In Dallas, St. Louis should have some problems and Romo will light it up.
Buffalo Bills* (+3.5) over the New York Jets -Hmm why am I picking Buffalo again? Well this is there good chance to win and I expect a close game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers*(+3) over the Carolina Panthers. -Carr possibly in? That made my decision.
Seattle Seahawks (-2)* over the San Franciso 49ers -Seahawks by a field goal was my first thought
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)* over the Arizona Cardinals -The old Ben Roethlisberger is back. He's clutch on 3rd downs again and that's where he looked poor last year.
San Diego Chargers (-12) over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won't have any offense but I am little concern about the spread which is why I didn't bet on it.
Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)* over the Denver Broncos. The spread is a concern BUT I am not a believer in Jay Cutler. Psh he may look nice but he isn't a winner! Barely winning over Buffalo and Oakland (with McCown) says it all.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)* over the NY Giants. As much as I hate Donovan McNabb for bringig up the race card I did believe he would strike against the Lions and they should get rolling.
New England Patriots (-7.5)* over the Cinncinati Bengals - if there is one team that it is necessary to have a good defense against it's the Patriots and you can't play from behind because that's where the Pats pull away.
Going into week 3 my record was 17-12-3 and this week I followed it was a 9-3-4 week improving my record to 26-15-7. A winning percent of 63.4% is pretty good but I've got to keep improving as I go along.
When I write my results I look at this week's losses and see where I messed up.
Green Bay 31, San Diego 24
I had said this one on paper didn't make sense for me to take San Diego with a negative spread (I use statistical analysis a lot) and sure enough I was wrong. I wasn't surprised because Green Bay showed a consistent level of play the last two weeks. I think San Diego will improve but they aren't last year's dominant team yet and may not be this year. Green Bay looks like a playoff team.
St. Louis Rams 3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
I called the Bucs victory over the Saints a "fluke" and deservingly I should eat my words. The Rams sucked big time and it's going to be tough measuring where these teams stand. I expect to have more losses involving these teams because I don't think I have a feel for them yet.
NY Giants 24, Washington Redskins 17
I overrated the Redskins as they were riding high with the 2-0 start. I think I underrated Eli Manning or simply forgot he existed. My bad. This one I just didn't think about enough and should've been revised.
My record is now 17-12-3. It is still respectable but one bad week can make it look terrible.
I'll go right into makings picks. Blue are favorites and red are dogs.
NY Jets (-3) over Miami Dolphins.
Indianapolis Colts (-6) over Houston Texans. -worried about the spread
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Minnesota Vikings
San Diego Charges (-6.5) over Green Bay Packers -on paper it's the wrong choice
New England Patriots (-16.5) over Buffalo Bills
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Detroit Lions -I expect the Eagles to bounce back
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) over San Francisco 49ers -very impressed by Tomlin
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) over Baltimore Ravens - Cardinal win over Seattle was no fluke
St. Louis Rams (+3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers -Bucs had a fluke last week
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Denver Broncos -Still unimpressed by Cutler/flip flopped this choice
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) over Seattle Seahawks -Bengals offense was good, I expect their defense to be back on track
Cleveland Browns (+3) over Oakland Raiders -Very impressed by Derek Anderson
Carolina Panthers (-4) over Atlanta Falcons
Washington Redskins (-3.5) over NY Giants
Dallas Cowboys (+3) over Chicago Bears -defense isn't good enough to stop this attack
Tennessee Titans (+4) over New Orleans Saints -nice spread I guess no one was watching last week's game?
Donovan McNabb has brought up the race card once again. This is after his disappointing loss to the Washington Redskins on Monday night.
This isn't the first time has occurred. But this time I really believe it is without its merit. His claim that black QBs face more scrutiny then his white counterparts in which the QB faces the most scrutiny in the game of football.
McNabb is clearly out of bounds here. Being black has nothing to do with it, it's all about being the best person for your job whether it is coaching or playing any position. It is about your skill and if you don't put the effort fans on the field whether you are Rex Grossman or Michael Vick you will be criticize. Take example, Vince Young. He is slowly becoming the face of the NFL because he is exciting and he's simply a winner. Don't whine when sh!t ain't going your way, Philadelphia fans just want to win and just admit to the fact that you can do more for your team.
I am going to back Rush Limbaugh's statement (partly) that we want these guys of different race to be successful. Who wasn't rooting for a Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy to be in the Superbowl? Race isn't the issue it was when Warren Moon was playing.
No one else has made these complaints and there is a vast number of black QBs. So if they have do a "little extra" to have their jobs wouldn't there be more complaints as a lot of them have gotten chances to start and succeed.
McNabb says there aren't as many black back up QBS, here's a list (none have made complaints):
DJ Shockley (Injured reserve for Atlanta)
Brian Leftwich
Steve McNair
Troy Smith
David Garrard
Quinn Gray (Jacksonville)
Cleo Lemon
Tarvaris Jackson
Anthony Wright (NY Giants)
Daunt Culpepper
Jamarcus Russell
Charlie Batch
Seneca Wallace
Vince Young
Jason Campbell
Some of these guys have been top draft picks so if they were so criticized why would they be drafted high and have teams put vast amount of money into these players?
On a lighter note: A bigger issue in sports is the discrimination of short people, specifically heightism. (I'm 5'5) Shorter players are usually the subject of losing value and not seen in a good light when hey are trying to make professional leagues like the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB. One main thing that they are discriminated against is the draft process which has a lot to do with money. Shorter players may be just skilled as the #1 pick in the draft but will probably be the picked in the hundreds based on height. Always a key thing for people not picking a player is that "he's not tall enough". The height factor has probably not allowed certain players from opportunities and even Doug Flutie at "5'10" wasn't given a real chance and had to play in the CFL. Stop making height a big deal scouts and just choose the best player.
I had a tough week going 6-9-1. My record is now 17-12 on the season.
Here is where I explain myself in the losses:
Cleveland Browns 51, Cincinnati Bengals 45
Derek Anderson continues to impress, despite a low pass completion rate he just gets the job done and he'll definitely get Player of the Week honors.
The larger spreads killed me, I was on the wrong side the entire week:
Picking Buffalo (+9.5), Bears, Jaguars and Broncos disappointed by not beating their "assumed" much weaker opponents.
New Orleans surprised people with how bad they were and I think many people were on the opposite end of this one.
The spread really killed me this week and hopefully I can bounce back.
I generally have a problem with larger spreads and hopefully I can improve it.
I had a very good first week going 11-3-2.
Most of these picks are instinctual and I don't like taking more then 5 minutes picking them. However this method generally works well for me.
Anyway dogs are in red, favorites in blue.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over the Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) over the New York Giants
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5) over Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills (+9.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers (spread too large for me)
Indianapolis Colts (-7) over Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans (+6.5) over Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions (-3) over Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers (+3) over St. Louis Rams
Dallas Cowboys (-4) over Miami Dolphins
Seattle Seahawks (-3) over Arizona Cardinals
NY Jets (+10) over Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos (-10) over Oakland Raiders
Chicago Bears (-12) over Kansas City Chiefs (big spread does concern me...)
San Diego Chargers (+3.5) over New England Patriots (Chargers bias?)
Washington Redskins (+7) over Philadelphia Eagles
Bill Belichick's initials fittingly are BB which stand for Big Brother as "he is watching you"! LOL.
The New England Patriots have gotten in trouble with the NFL and Commissioner Roger Goodell as this was the second time the Patriots have been caught videotaping the other team. They were last caught videotaping the Green Bay Packers.
My stand on stealing signs is that is part of the game. Whatever league rules are, being one step ahead of your opponent and predicting what they are going to do is part of coaching. If you aren't cheating you aren't trying and while I am okay with the NFL putting on sanctions against the Patriots this shouldn't be considered a big news story.
The NFL wants to reduce the amount of signal stealing but everyone knows that you can't have the same play calls, the same snap count cadences and different words for different plays. Coaches cover their mouth due to the hiring of lip readers. Why don't team do dummy signals? They do it in baseball. Stealing signs is part of the game and while you may accuse someone of stealing signs what is the foul in doing so?
Football is a chess game and if you know what your opponent is doing that helps you with your next move. If it up to the teams to hide their own signals I would say.
I understand the NFL for being angry but I think they should honestly just allow it league-wide and have teams adjust it since it'll be done anyway.
I watch the Buffalo Bills every week (we also get their games in Canada). I am also a Miami (FL) football fan for whatever reason (don't know how I got into them). Anyway I knew about Kevin Everett since his Miami days and was rooting for him to do better.
He has suffered quite a number of injuries in his NFL career but not as serious as what happened to him on Sunday. It was during one of those dangerous kickoffs where he put down his head and went to hit the returning and got him in the head/shoulder area.
Either way Everett went down like he was hit by a bullet and when I saw it, I knew it was serious.
The type of tackle he made was sound other then not going lower.. sometimes it happens where you hit someone high.
I must say I am surprised it doesn't happen more often in the NFL. In rugby I was told to make those hits where we lower our heads and just take the guy out. Sometimes I would land on my head or have pretty bad concussions.
At first the news stories were that he would probably have some paralysis but now that he has been able to move his feet and hands there is a great/excellent chance he will walk again (which is the most important).
Everett may never play in the NFL again but I hope he can live a normal life.
Here is footage of what happened:
I had a very good week to start the season (it's usually pretty bad to start) by going 11-3-1. It is currently a 79% winning percentage though I don't make money off this I do it out of personal pride. Staying over 50% is worth boasting about like I did last season.
Here were the losses:
Green Bay 16, Philadelphia 13
This was an upset and I figured the Eagles would be better than 13 points. Philadelphia by 3 seemed like a gimme selection and they still could have pulled it off near the end. Maybe Green Bay is better than I think they are?
New England 38, New York Jets 14
I pegged this one as a 3-point game and wanted to take advantage of the 6.5 point spread. The New England offense proved to be excellent. I do have a hate for the New England Patriots (I am an anti-band wagoner) so that may have also factored in on the selection.
Houston 20, Kansas City 3
I feel really stupid about this one. I liked both teams going in. I have a Matt Schaub infatuation (in purely football skills loving way). I figured the Chief's offense was going to be good enough to be good enough. Being the underdog as well I figured it might be close as I liked both teams but that backfired.
Overall, it was a very good week and most of the games went as expected. Maybe I can get a perfect week? One thing for sure though if I see the NFL Analyst for the Toronto Star having a sub-.500 record, I am going to contact the Toronto Star about picking at least someone who will give good advice ;).
Time is of the essence so I will just quickly layout my picks. Blue is picking a favorite and red is picking a dog. Note: I play these for fun despite an above .500 record on most weeks. I do not suggest you gamble on these games.
Indianapolis Colts (-5.5) over New Orleans Saints (sort of wanted to learn the other way)
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) over the Houston Texans.
Buffalo Bills (+3) over Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) over the Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers (+1) over the St. Louis Rams
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over the Green Bay Packers
Tennesse Titans (+6.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars* curse
Minnesota Vikings (-3) over Atlanta Falcons (ugh I'd hate to be at this game)
Washington Redskins (-3) over Miami Dolphins
New York Jets (+6.5) over New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks (-6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Diego Chargers (-6) over Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions (+2) over Oakland Raiders
Dallas Cowboys (-6) over NY Giants
Monday games:
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) over the Baltimore Ravens
Arizona Cardinals (+3) over the San Francisco 49ers.
Record so far: 9-3-1
This is the hardest division to predict as every team has a chance to win.
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. St. Louis Rams
Other then Seattle on top the rest is crap shoot for me. I see St. Louis aging with their wide receivers. Bulger is good and all but how good will he be with more ineffective targets?
The 49ers are probably going to have Frank Gore injured because he always is despite him being really good. I expect Alex Smith to keep progressing but without Norv Turner the offense isn't going to be as good.
I really like the direction the Cardinals are going. The offense will be good with Leinhart at the helm and James (though he did suck) as the RB.
I don't want to diss the Rams but I think this battle will be the most exciting in the season.
